Coalitions And Mergers

Talk of a merger of the Liberals and NDP as reported in the media seems a bit premature. After all, the Conservatives have been in power for less than five years, so it would be rash to the extreme to bring an end to the most successful party in the history of western democracy after a stint in opposition that, in the grand scheme of history, remains still very short.

Things will change -they always do-, and eventually, whatever the current government does-, Canadians will want change and bring the Liberals back to power - for a few years.

Nevertheless, it seems clear that the Liberals have lost their status of 'natural governing party'. They lost it on the day Brian Mulroney swept Quebec and put an end to the century-long Liberal monopoly on which all previous Liberal governments were built. The only reason Jean Chrétien managed to win three successive majorities afterwards is because the right was split. Add up the PC and Reform votes, and you get something resembling the Parliament of today.

It is often said that the Liberals won elections by being the party of the centre. In fact, they won elections by sweeping Quebec and taking advantage of a divided right.

Few democracies have been able to sustain succesful centrist parties. In most European countries, governement alternates between the right and left, with a smaller centrist party choked in the middle. And obviously, in the US, there are only two choices

So where are we heading? Unless the Greens or Bloc disappear, or the NDP vote collapses, we have the status-quo. And in a few years time, if the political complex still shows no sign of changing, a coalition between Liberals and NDP might be the way to go.