Coalition

The last few days have been simply surreal.

At any rate, according to the CBC, a tentative deal has now been struck between the Liberals and NDP to form a coalition government. The government would last exactly two and a half years, the Prime minister, deputy Prime minister and Finance minister would all be Liberals.

The Conservatives have launched an all-out media blitz to turn public opinion against the coalition, but they are effectively powerless to prevent it since the opposition have a majority of seats in the House. It's therefore up to the Liberals (since the NDP is strongly in favour of the coalition) to decide whether they really want to take power at the beginning of an economic storm or instead let the conditions destroy the Conservative party brand.

As a general rule, it's better to be in government than in opposition, so my guess is that they will stick to the current deal with the NDP. Their task will therefore be to keep the Canadian economy afloat for the next year and half, and hope that the conditions improve before the end of the coalition.

It's very significant that the coalition deal has a precise lifespan attached to it. The Liberals and NDP obviously understand that the next year will be very difficult and want to avoid going to the polls right in the middle of the economic crisis. Actually, if they are lucky, the conditions will start improving in two years and the coalition will be able to take credit for the improvement. Of course, the opposite may happen, but once again, it's always easier to be the governing party.

The last question is of course: who will become Prime minister? I believe that the job should go to Stéphane Dion until a new Liberal leader is picked in May. He was after all elected democratically at the Montreal leadership convention which gives him the right to lead the party until he choses to step down (he has chosen next May). At any rate, if he were prepared to take all of the necessary and unpopular measures needed to confront the economic storm, the public outcry would die down after his departure and his replacement would be able to start governing on a strong economic base. He could therefore be a very useful political asset to the coalition.