But the agency also did a second series of polls to examine some trends hidden beneath the apparent tie. The verdict: advantage Liberals.
Basically, Harris-Decima tried to replicate the scenario of a polarised election, where, in the last days of the campaign, Bloc, NDP and Green supporters realise that only the Liberals or Conservatives can form a government and therefore give their vote to the party that they dislike the least. The numbers, which leaned in favour of the Conservatives last fall, are now strongly Liberal.
Simply put, a strong majority of Canadians would now prefer a Liberal government to a Conservative government. The also feel that Liberal values are closer to theirs than Conservative values, and that the Liberals have a stronger front bench. The only area in which the Conservatives come first is leadership, with Steven Harper still significantly ahead of Stéphane Dion.
With these numbers in mind, it’s quite surprising that the Liberals didn’t choose to topple the government today by voting against the controversial immigration legislation. It would have been a good election issue for them, and the Conservative organisation still hasn’t recovered from the series of scandals that have plagued their party since the beginning of this year. Apparently, the whole Liberal caucus advised Dion to drop the gloves, but he refused because he wants to spend the summer selling his environmental plan.
He may well feel, like Kim Campbell, than an election is not the place to discuss serious policy. But if he doesn’t succeed in getting his message across, it’s very much possible that he’ll come back to the House in October cursing himself, because the Conservatives will have spent all summer repairing their organisation and littering the country in negative ads. Dion had better hope for a long, warm and humid summer.
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