I've just finished watching part of the US. presidential debates. The topic was foreign policy and the quality of the exchanges was absolutely abysmal.
Both candidates gave us an earful of nonsense. Barack Omaba promised to leave Irak to shift the focus on Afghanistan. John McCain pledged to stay in both countries, to cut contacts with Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia, and to form a "league of democracies" to better advance the interests of the western world (i.e. the USA).
It was all about how to be better policemen. Who can we talk to, who should we impose sanctions against, who do we invade? John McCain was busy spreading fear and he did an excellent job. His message was the same as George Bush's: if you're not scared, you're naive.
Obama did fine, but he certainly didn't shine. He spoke in very short sentences and got bogged down too easily by McCain's jabs. The eloquence of his speeches was missing from this debate.
I actually believe that Stéphane Dion should make John McCain his model for public speaking. Neither of the two men look credible when they try to make fiery political speeches like Barack Obama or Pierre Trudeau. But McCain has found a way to communicate his message very effectively by speaking slowly and in a very soft tone of voice. It makes him look sincere, wise and in command of the issues.
The same would be true of Dion. If only he spoke like McCain, he'd make less English mistakes and regain the advantages he used to own on sincerity and competence.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Petits commentaires
Quelques commentaires sur la présente campagne:
Stéphane Dion a dévoilé aujourd’hui son programme électoral, un gros document de 68 pages avec l’inventaire des promesses de son parti. Les calculs sont tous bons, mais pas nécessairement fiables car ils sont basés sur des chiffres anciens qui ont été revus à la baisse. Dion, s’il est élu, sera vraisemblablement obligé d’annuler certains programmes conservateurs ou de renier sur des promesses de son parti. Il en est sûrement conscient et à sans doûte déjà décidé précisément quelles promesses il compte tenir.
Jack Layton, pour sa part, a affirmé ce matin en entrevue qu’il serait prêt à former un gouvernement de coalition avec les Libéraux si cela permettait de se débarasser de Harper. En réalité, c’est très peu probable car les Libéraux sont les pires ennemis du NDP. Mais, comme formule pour freiner le vote stratégique, Layton aurait difficilement pu trouver mieux. Chapeau!
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Polls
The headline in La Presse today read: "Conservatives Cruising Towards Majority"
The headline in The Globe and Mail read: "Conservatives Losing Ground In Key Ridings"
The reality is somewhat in between. The Conservatives are still comfortably leading with just under 40% of voter intentions. However, the Liberals picked up some steam in the past few days and gone up by a few percentage points. How do I know this? Because the Globe and Mail has a handy system called "The Poll of Polls" which finds overall trends by finding the average of all national polls. You can visit it at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/national/politics/
The small Liberal rise in popularity is most likely due to their decision to finally start showcasing their team. Bob Rae and Ken Dryden have been making regular appearances on the campaign trail with Dion in the past two days and Michael Ignatieff is scheduled to join them tomorrow at a rally in Toronto. There is concern among Liberals that the team may end up overshadowing the leader and send his personal plummeting ratings even lower, but I've always believed that those "leadership ratings" are overrated. After all, in contrast with our neighbours to the south, voters here choose their party, not their Prime Minister.
The headline in The Globe and Mail read: "Conservatives Losing Ground In Key Ridings"
The reality is somewhat in between. The Conservatives are still comfortably leading with just under 40% of voter intentions. However, the Liberals picked up some steam in the past few days and gone up by a few percentage points. How do I know this? Because the Globe and Mail has a handy system called "The Poll of Polls" which finds overall trends by finding the average of all national polls. You can visit it at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/national/politics/
The small Liberal rise in popularity is most likely due to their decision to finally start showcasing their team. Bob Rae and Ken Dryden have been making regular appearances on the campaign trail with Dion in the past two days and Michael Ignatieff is scheduled to join them tomorrow at a rally in Toronto. There is concern among Liberals that the team may end up overshadowing the leader and send his personal plummeting ratings even lower, but I've always believed that those "leadership ratings" are overrated. After all, in contrast with our neighbours to the south, voters here choose their party, not their Prime Minister.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Cartoon
Since it's my birthday today, I'm going to write a "lazy post"! Here are two great cartoon from the Globe and Mail's Gable!
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Début de campagne
Les premiers jours de cette campagne électorale ont été marqués par la transformation extrême des images de Dion et Harper, quelques dérapages dans la campagne conservatrice et le fameux fiasco entourant la participation d’Elizabeth May au débat des chefs.
Les médias ont grandement fait état des avaries dans la machine électorale du Parti Conservateur. C'est vrai qu'avec l’épisode du guano de macareux et le congédiement aujourd’hui d’un administrateur important du parti qui avait accusé le père d’un soldat mort en Afghanistan d’être un Libéral diguisé, il y a de quoi se faire des soucis.
Mais sur le fond, très peu de choses ont changé depuis le début de la campagne. Les Conservateurs jouissent encore d’une avance importante dans les sondages et les Libéraux n’ont pas été capables de regagner le terrain perdu. Dion se débrouille honorablement, mais il lui faudra un effort presque surhumain pour détrôner Harper.
Je prédis que l’économie deviendra vite l’enjeu principal de la campagne. Steven Harper devra paufiner son image de stabilité et de compétence tandis que Dion devra convaincre les électeurs des bénéfices économiques du Tournant Vert. En ce moment, c’est très nettement avantage Harper, mais les Libéraux sont encore de la partie.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Campaign 2008
Election campaigns are all about rhetoric and notoriously devoid of serious policy discussion. André Pratte from La Presse suggested that scheduling regular debates between the two main contenders would make more serious policy discussion possible, but this is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
In keeping with the style of the campaign, I'll be updating my blog much more regularly in the next few weeks, but not necessarily to do anything more than comment on the performance of the party leaders in the last 24 hours.
While day 1 of the campaign was largely won by the Conservatives, day 2 was Liberal victory. They set the agenda by announcing a policy that would ban assault weapons like the one used in the Dawson College shootings, and dominated the news until word broke out that Elizabeth May would be excluded from the Leaders' debate. The also unveiled a series of new ads which, while falling short of ground braking, are still well made and on message. The French ads are much better than their English counterparts and could go far. They are combative without being excessively negative, and also show the strength of the Liberal team.
It was an uneventful day for Stephen Harper. No major mistakes, but an unsuccessful attempt to control the day's agenda by calling a press conference at 6.00 am. The idea backfired because the journalists were so angry at being woken up that they covered the morning news with clips of Conservative ministers fumbling in their answers to straightforward questions!
In keeping with the style of the campaign, I'll be updating my blog much more regularly in the next few weeks, but not necessarily to do anything more than comment on the performance of the party leaders in the last 24 hours.
While day 1 of the campaign was largely won by the Conservatives, day 2 was Liberal victory. They set the agenda by announcing a policy that would ban assault weapons like the one used in the Dawson College shootings, and dominated the news until word broke out that Elizabeth May would be excluded from the Leaders' debate. The also unveiled a series of new ads which, while falling short of ground braking, are still well made and on message. The French ads are much better than their English counterparts and could go far. They are combative without being excessively negative, and also show the strength of the Liberal team.
It was an uneventful day for Stephen Harper. No major mistakes, but an unsuccessful attempt to control the day's agenda by calling a press conference at 6.00 am. The idea backfired because the journalists were so angry at being woken up that they covered the morning news with clips of Conservative ministers fumbling in their answers to straightforward questions!
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Liberals Must Attack
The Conservatives have been running an advertising campaign since the beginning of the week in preparation for the election that it expected to be called on Sunday. New polls suggest that it is paying off. They don't yet seem to be in majority territory, but they have gained at least five points.
It will therefore be extremely important for the Liberals and the Bloc to go on the attack immediately and give Conservatives a taste of their own medicine. Machiavelli explained in the Prince that the high road doesn't work. His advice is still valid today. When George Bush and Karl Rove launched a devastating ad campaign against John Kerry, the democratic candidate chose to trust the intelligence of Americans and refused to respond with an attack campaign of his own. The result was Bush making up the ground he lost in the early stages of the election campaign, and winning the election with a clear majority.
Canadians aren't any smarter than Americans and a well-run ad campaign can be just as effective here. It would be better for all parties to take the high road, but since the Conservatives are committed to an ad blitz that would make Karl Rove proud, the opposition parties need to us the same tactics.
It will therefore be extremely important for the Liberals and the Bloc to go on the attack immediately and give Conservatives a taste of their own medicine. Machiavelli explained in the Prince that the high road doesn't work. His advice is still valid today. When George Bush and Karl Rove launched a devastating ad campaign against John Kerry, the democratic candidate chose to trust the intelligence of Americans and refused to respond with an attack campaign of his own. The result was Bush making up the ground he lost in the early stages of the election campaign, and winning the election with a clear majority.
Canadians aren't any smarter than Americans and a well-run ad campaign can be just as effective here. It would be better for all parties to take the high road, but since the Conservatives are committed to an ad blitz that would make Karl Rove proud, the opposition parties need to us the same tactics.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Elections et sondages
Stephen Harper et Stéphane Dion se sont rencontrés aujourd'hui au 24 Sussex, soi-disant pour déterminer s'il y aurait un terrain d'entente possible entre les deux partis dans la prochaine session parlementaire. Le tête-à-tête à duré en total un gros 15 minutes, et s'est achevé avec la conclusion évidente que Stephen Harper allait déchencher des élections.
N'empêche que c'est une sacrée comédie que nous a joué le premier ministre avec cette histoire de "rencontre au sommet". Il s'est d'abord servi du refus de Stéphane Dion de le rencontrer avant le 13 septembre pour alimenter sa thèse de parlement dysfonctionnel, or une fois que Dion a accepté, il l'a reçu pendant un quart d'heure avant de conclure que, ô surprise, il fallait aller aux urnes.
Autre nouvelle d'aujourd'hui: un nouveau sondage de Stategic Counsel place les Conservateurs huit points en avance des Libéraux avec 37 points par rapport à 29.
Si ce sondage était le premier depuis le début du mois, on pourrait y voir quelque chose d'intéressant. Mais c'est plutôt le cinquième de la semaine. Alors, comme les autres sondages plaçaient systématiquement les deux principaux partis à égalité, on peut aisément conclure que celui-ci n'est rien d'autre qu'un freak-poll.
Ce n'est la première fois pas non plus que Stategic Counsel publie un sondage avec des résultats plus que douteux. Comme vous pouvez le constater sur le site web Nodice.ca qui fait l'inventaire de tous les sondages depuis le dernier scrutin de janvier 2006, Strategic Counsel a tendence à considérablement surestimer les appuis conservateurs. En mars dernier, ils avaient réalisé une enquête donnant au parti de Steven Harper une avance de 11 points sur les Libéraux, quand une autre enquête publiée le même jour, celle-ci de Harris-Decima, voyait plutôt une égalité 32-32 entre les deux partis.
Le plus drôle dans tout ceci, c'est que ce dernier sondage de Stategic Counsel donne aux Libéraux une avance importante sur les Conservateurs au Québec (26-23). C'est tout un contraste avec le dernier sondage de Léger-Marketing qui donnait seulement 20% des appuis aux Libéraux mais qui plaçait en revanche les Conservateurs à égalité avec le Bloc...
N'empêche que c'est une sacrée comédie que nous a joué le premier ministre avec cette histoire de "rencontre au sommet". Il s'est d'abord servi du refus de Stéphane Dion de le rencontrer avant le 13 septembre pour alimenter sa thèse de parlement dysfonctionnel, or une fois que Dion a accepté, il l'a reçu pendant un quart d'heure avant de conclure que, ô surprise, il fallait aller aux urnes.
Autre nouvelle d'aujourd'hui: un nouveau sondage de Stategic Counsel place les Conservateurs huit points en avance des Libéraux avec 37 points par rapport à 29.
Si ce sondage était le premier depuis le début du mois, on pourrait y voir quelque chose d'intéressant. Mais c'est plutôt le cinquième de la semaine. Alors, comme les autres sondages plaçaient systématiquement les deux principaux partis à égalité, on peut aisément conclure que celui-ci n'est rien d'autre qu'un freak-poll.
Ce n'est la première fois pas non plus que Stategic Counsel publie un sondage avec des résultats plus que douteux. Comme vous pouvez le constater sur le site web Nodice.ca qui fait l'inventaire de tous les sondages depuis le dernier scrutin de janvier 2006, Strategic Counsel a tendence à considérablement surestimer les appuis conservateurs. En mars dernier, ils avaient réalisé une enquête donnant au parti de Steven Harper une avance de 11 points sur les Libéraux, quand une autre enquête publiée le même jour, celle-ci de Harris-Decima, voyait plutôt une égalité 32-32 entre les deux partis.
Le plus drôle dans tout ceci, c'est que ce dernier sondage de Stategic Counsel donne aux Libéraux une avance importante sur les Conservateurs au Québec (26-23). C'est tout un contraste avec le dernier sondage de Léger-Marketing qui donnait seulement 20% des appuis aux Libéraux mais qui plaçait en revanche les Conservateurs à égalité avec le Bloc...
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