Public inquiry?

Less than a week after he dismissed opposition calls for a Public Inquiry into alleged tax evasion involving former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, Stephen Harper has made a complete u-turn on the issue and announced he would appoint an independent third party to review the allegations. In a role similar to that played by Bob Rae a few years ago regarding the Air India disaster, the independent reviewer will be in charge of collecting available information and determining the need for a Public Inquiry.

Nobody knows what triggered this sudden change of course in PM Harper’s strategy. It was only a week ago that the Conservatives were accusing Liberals of irresponsibility and disrespect for demanding an inquiry into the dealing of a former Prime Minister. And now, as Harper told the press today, those same Conservative Ministers who stood up for Mulroney all of last week will be prohibited from having any contact with him until the matter is cleared.

In the short term, he’s pulled it off quite nicely. People seem ready to forgive him for the change or course, and the announcement also nicely overshadowed Stéphane Dion’s first major policy announcement on poverty.

Nevertheless, this inquiry still poses many significant risks to the party.

For a start, let’s remember that the Conservative party is only a few years old. Though electoral victory has dulled them significantly, still harbours two distinct groups: the old PCs and old Reform. For PCs, Brian Mulroney is still very much a spiritual leader and friend. He worked with many of the current Ministers and Senate Members (including Justice Minister Rob Nicholson and Government Leader in the Senate Marjorie LeBreton. LeBreton was known for being a good friend of Mulroney, and now, as a member of the Conservative Caucus, is forbidden to speak to him.

Another danger for Harper is simply the nature of these public investigations. History has shown that they tend to lead lives of their own, typically ignoring the desired of the PM in office. Unlike the Manley panel where the recommendations are made solely to the PM and can therefore be modified by him for practicality. With this inquiry, he’s build himself a loose cannon whose direction of fire he won’t be able to predict.