Bad Time For Power

With the world economy heading for a major slowdown this coming year, this is definitely a bad time to be in power. Canada looks on course for a year of stagflation -maybe even recession- and some analysts are predicting that the government could end up in deficit if it maintains current levels of spending. So, to put things squarely, unless the Conservatives get hit with their own sponsorship scandal, Stéphane Dion would be crazy to call an election any time soon.

Let's just take a look at history:

In 1930, the Conservatives of R.B. Bennet were elected with the mandate to put the Canadian economy back on track during the Great Depression. They did their best and really tried to save the situation, but, because of the bad economic times all across the world, they miserably failed and lost power to the Liberals in 1935. The didn't regain it until Diefenbaker!

In 1968, Trudeaumania swept across the country, propelling the Liberals and their young Prime Minister to a strong and decisive victory. Things went quite well at first, with Trudeau still climbing in the polls, but it wasn't long before the Canadian and world economies fell victim to stagflation, putting the government's finances in difficulty. The Liberals hung on to power in the next 1972 election by two seats, and it was only thanks to the magnetic personality of Trudeau that they avoided a humiliating defeat.

When Kim Campbell became Prime Minister in 1993, she accepted the lead of a country with its public finances in shambles during a terrible time of economic downturn. George Bush paid the price in the States, Bob Rae paid the price in Ontario, and she, frankly, paid more than anyone else.

An economic slowdown can only hurt the government, and it's as bad as many people predict it to be, it could put the government in deficit. If I were Dion, knowing the history, I would abstain from the next budget vote.