Showdown

A week after releasing a provincial climate change strategy which has been dubbed the worst plan of the western world, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach reiterated today his disbelief in climate change by cancelling his scheduled participation in tomorrow’s Premier’s Meeting on the environment. In doing so, he once again made it clear that the province of Alberta does not care about global warming and strive to do anything about it.

As Peter Lougheed wrote last in the Globe in Mail, this could potentially cause major national divisions.

Imagine if the federal government were to finally decide to put in place a real and effective climate change plan calling for nationwide absolute emissions reductions. All provinces other than Alberta would have a fairly easy time meeting the targets. It might take some effort and maybe initially some funds, but the popular support for the measures would mean that they get applied without too much fuss.

In Alberta, however, this situation is completely different. The province, after half a century of dreams, is finally reaping the benefits of its oil sands and sees no hurry to give them up. Few Albertans truly believe in global warming, and many still view the federal government as intrinsically evil and financially incompetent.

For this reason, it is nearly certain that any serious and binding national climate change plan would be seen a yet another federal intrusion in provincial affairs and wreak havoc across the country. It would be both Alberta vs. Federal Government and Alberta vs. Other provinces that are seeing their emissions reductions offset by the Alberta tar sands.

You see, its all because of an error of judgement made by our Founding Fathers in 1867. Not well acquainted with the science of global warming, they made the error of making natural resources a provincial domain and the environment a federal competence. So in any case of a federal-provincial battle, both sides can legitimately able to claim their side of the law, bringing a new level of antagonism to federal-provincial relations.

The government –which ever one it ends up being- will undoubtedly decide at one point to get serious about the environment. The Alberta legislature will most likely oppose any real targets, making a confrontation inevitable.

The question is how muvh? If Peter Lougheed is to be trusted: it will be ten times greater than anything we have ever seen in the past.