Options

I’m feeling much better today so I have time for a quick post about the budget showdown in Quebec. So as you may know, the budget which is due for a vote in the National Assembly next week, will apparently be opposed by both the PQ and ADQ. The governing Liberals, for their part have indicated that it was non amendable and that the vote would go ahead.

So what’s going to happen? Well, obviously, nobody knows. There really are an endless number of options.

The most likely scenario would see the Liberals and PQ to reaching a last minute agreement –can you believe it, the Liberals and PQ agreeing- and thus keeping the government afloat. This would probably come in the form of a minor budget amendment which would limit the political damage done to both parties.

The second possibility would be for the PQ to abstain from voting. This, in my opinion, would have been their best solution as it would have let them indicate their opposition to the budget without having to trigger an early election. But strangely, the party has already indicated it would not do so, meaning that this move would now carry some political cost.

The third scenario would see the government defeated by both parties; this is when it would get interesting. Premier Charest would be obliged to present his resignation to the Lieutenant-Governor, who would have the choice of calling and election OR asking Mario Dumont’s ADQ to form a government. And because the last election was only a few months ago, the second possibility would appear to be the most likely.

But in either case, the Liberals would benefit. If the ADQ were asked to form a government, Mr. Dumont would actually be expected to implement his delirious platform, and to make matters worse for him, he would have to do it with his team of novices. Put it this way, the ADQ went from seven seats to forty-one in a single election. Most of the candidates expected to lose, and a number of them barely even campaigned. It’s hard to see how Mr. Dumont could form a successful government and implement his crazy platform with a caucus like that.

Now, if the Lieutenant-Governor opted instead for an election, the opposition would be attacked by Quebecers for having triggered it only a few months after the last one, which had cost the taxpayers 72 million dollars. Add this to the fact that this budget contained 850 million dollars in tax cuts for the middle class, and you’ve got the making of a third Liberal victory.

I don’t know what will happen, nobody does. All I say for sure is that the next few weeks will be full of surprises.